Day-to-Day Murders in the nation Fall Thirty-Seven Percent During President Sheinbaum, According to Government Figures

The average figure of everyday murders monthly in Mexico has fallen by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by new official data. Nevertheless, security specialists have cautioned that murder numbers could fail to indicate enhanced countrywide stability.

Significant Decline in Per-Day Averages

There was an mean of nearly 55 murders a day in November versus almost 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the presidency in September. This announcement was provided by the director of the nation's federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily news conference on Tuesday.

“The result in homicides that we’ve had during these months is extremely significant,” the President stated, noting that last month the smallest number of homicides were documented for any November in the past 10 years.

Historical Context and Official Strategy

Intense drug cartel infighting, combined with the administration's heavily military operations to confront the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s homicide rate escalate in recent years. The rate peaked at a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the country’s national statistics agency.

That resulted in Mexico a murder rate over four times greater than that of the United States. From that point, murders have been on the decline, falling to 33,550 the previous year. Sheinbaum has attributed her public safety plan for an ostensibly sharper reduction in killings this year.

At a press conference in the summer, the President said: “We have a plan, there is oversight of the strategy, and there is detailed monitoring municipality by municipality in some cases. The approach functions. And we have to persist at it every day.”

The main components of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy involve:

• Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
• Improving intelligence and investigation efforts.
• Enhanced cooperation between various agencies.

Expert Caution and Data Concerns

Nevertheless, security researchers warned that using murder data to paint a picture of peace was flawed. This is notably true in light of the rise in different criminal activities such as people going missing.

“That would be excellent information if this were a reduction, but I think we can’t just concentrate on the homicide data and say: ‘Oh well, good,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican cartels. “I would be guardedly hopeful.”

According to the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings overall declined by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year compared with the same timeframe last year. But, disappearances have increased by 15% and in certain states have increased by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on murders is not valid for assessing the situation of public insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who lack the capacity or the desire to properly recognize and classify corpses. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the capability to conceal violence through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that using month-to-month averages of daily killings was additionally concerning because it might hide days when there were particularly elevated numbers of murders.

“Using the daily average renders spikes of violence invisible,” he said.

Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Success

Where the government can cite the effectiveness of its security strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 people were detained between October 2024 and November 2025 for high-impact crimes, per official data. Over 20,000 weapons were confiscated and 311 tonnes of drugs intercepted.

“Donald Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s highly politically profitable,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Public Anger

However in spite of these measures, Mexico is still plagued by high violence, with a number of states in the throes of cartel-driven conflict. Recently there was a high-profile murder of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors killed in the past year.

Weeks after, many thousands of protesters took to the streets in the capital and across the nation to express their outrage at corruption and narco-violence.

“The administration shares [data] in a manner to construct a picture of safety. Politically it’s very potent, from a social perspective it’s highly debatable,” Vargas said.