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An individual made nearly half a million dollars on the ouster of Venezuela's president shortly prior to it was officially announced, sparking debate about potential gains made from non-public details of the event.

Changing Odds in Predictions

Wagers on Polymarket, a crypto-powered platform, that the Venezuelan president would be removed from office by the end of January surged in the time leading up to former President Trump declared on the weekend that the Venezuelan leader had been taken into custody.

One account, which joined the platform recently and made four bets, all on Venezuela, profited a total of $436,000 from a modest bet of $32.5K.

The identity is unknown. The user had only a blockchain identifier for identification.

Market Signals Before News Break

Market statistics shows that participants put the odds of the president's removal at just 6.5% in the midday period of the Friday before the event.

But the odds had climbed to over 10% by late Friday night and surged in the morning of Saturday, indicating a rapid movement in betting activity immediately prior to the public announcement was made.

"This particular bet has all the signs of a trade based on inside information," stated an industry expert.

Several of other individuals also made large payouts from bets on the same outcome.

Political Attention Intensifies

Some lawmakers are growing concerned.

A new rule presented on the start of the week would prevent government employees from making trades on forecasting platforms if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a bet.

Market Background

Event-driven betting sites have grown significantly in the United States, with participants able to bet on everything from sports to political events.

Prediction markets faced scrutiny under the last presidential term. However it has found a more favorable environment during the Trump presidency.

Insider trading is illegal in the stock market, but there are more ambiguous rules in the prediction market space.

An official representative for Kalshi said their site "strictly forbids insider trading of any form."